1 February 2010
The ‘soft’ 31 January deadline for countries to associate themselves with the hastily brokered Copenhagen Accord, and propose 2020 mitigation targets has come and gone with no seismic shift in developed country action, says Tearfund.
The low level of ambition that embodies the Copenhagen Accord will not keep global warming below 2 degrees. Neither will it prevent some of the most serious impacts of climate change on the world’s poorest people hit hardest by climate change and least responsible for causing it.
Disappointingly, most developed countries that have put forward pledges under the Accord by the 31 January deadline have stuck to the low end of their low proposed pledges from last year. Having failed to change the game last year in Copenhagen by raising its target, the EU has put forward its stale offer of 20 per cent cuts on 1990 levels by 2020, rising to 30 per cent in the event of an ambitious deal. Australia stuck to the bottom end of its offer at 5 per cent cuts on 1990 levels by 2020, despite evidence that conditions for the higher end of its 5-25 per cent range (substantial action from developing countries) have actually been met. Only Japan (25 per cent cuts) and Norway, (30 per cent rising to 40 per cent in the event of a good deal) currently stand out from the crowd. No developed country actually hits what is scientifically needed – cuts of at least 40 per cent on 1990 levels by 2020.
It is left to small island states like the Marshall Islands, who are at risk of going under water, to shame rich countries by pledging 40 per cent cuts on 2009 levels by 2020.The current level of ambition in the Accord is far from enough. The world’s poorest and most vulnerable countries should not be expected to accept these weak pledges that threaten their very survival.
But ultimately this year countries must not be distracted by the Accord. They must instead get back to the negotiating table to continue real negotiations on a fair, ambitious and binding deal that addresses climate change. Even the BASIC countries (China, India, South Africa and Brazil) that first forged this deal with the US recognise this and have called for redoubled efforts within the UN this year. Currently what we have it is nothing more than the same old weak promises dressed up as something new.